Cordros Raises Year-End Target Price for MTN Stock to N616, Reveals 2025 Dividend Estimate
Analysts at Cordros Securities have upgraded their target price for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc from N588.74 to N616.07 per share, reflecting a 4.6% upside. The upward revision follows MTN Nigeria’s strong nine-month performance, driven by accelerating data demand and improved operating metrics.
In its new equity report, Cordros highlighted MTN Nigeria’s exceptional financial results, which included 57.5% revenue growth, a 15.1 percentage-point expansion in EBITDA margin to 51.4%, and an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of N35.77.
Reaffirming its BUY recommendation, the firm stated:
“Following our review, we raise our year-end target price by 4.6% to N616.07, implying a 29.7% upside from the current price of N475.00 (as of Nov 18).”
Cordros also noted the company’s N5.00 interim dividend, equivalent to a 3.3% yield, and now estimates a total 2025 dividend of N15.50 per share.
Projections: Stronger Operating Environment and Revenue Growth Expected
Cordros expects MTN Nigeria’s performance in 2025 to improve significantly, supported by operational efficiency gains and a more stable macroeconomic landscape.
Key projections include:
• Lower Finance Costs
Net finance costs are projected to decline 70.7% year-on-year to N389.84 billion, due largely to higher expected finance income.
• Data Remains the Growth Engine
Data revenue is forecast to rise 71.2% year-on-year, remaining the company’s largest and fastest-growing service category.
• Voice Revenue Recovery
Voice revenue is expected to increase 52.5% year-on-year, while customer expenditure levels are projected to grow more moderately.
• ARPU and Subscriber Growth
- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is expected to grow 45% YoY to N5,053.55.
- Subscriber base is projected to expand 7.1% to 86.61 million.
• Forex Gains Expected
Cordros anticipates a net FX gain of N84.53 billion, reversing the losses recorded in the previous year.
Overall, the analysts forecast EPS of N53.31 for 2025, a remarkable turnaround from the N19.10 loss per share reported for 2024.
Nine-Month 2025 Performance: MTN Returns to Profitability
MTN Nigeria reported a pre-tax profit of N1.12 trillion for the nine months ending 30 September 2025, compared to a N713.6 billion loss during the same period in 2024.
In Q3 2025, the telecom operator posted a pre-tax profit of N504.2 billion, a massive jump from N37.7 billion recorded in Q3 2024.
Total revenue for the nine-month period reached N3.73 trillion, supported by broad-based growth:
• Data Revenue:
N1.97 trillion — 73% YoY growth, accounting for more than half of MTN’s revenue.
• Voice Revenue:
N1.19 trillion — 48% YoY increase, up from N803.95 billion in the previous year.
Other service segments contributed the remaining revenue.
