Nigeria’s push for real-time electronic transmission of election results is facing a major setback as persistent broadband gaps continue to undermine the country’s digital readiness, particularly in rural and conflict-prone areas.
Although lawmakers recently reversed course to mandate electronic upload of results, fresh data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) show that the supporting digital infrastructure remains inadequate. At least 4,834 communities across the country are still classified as unserved or underserved, leaving millions without reliable connectivity ahead of future elections.
Missed Broadband Targets, Growing Digital Divide
Nigeria’s struggles stem largely from its failure to meet key milestones under two National Broadband Plans spanning 2013–2020 and 2020–2025. The most recent plan set an ambitious target of 70 per cent broadband penetration by 2025. However, as of January 2026, penetration stood at about 50.58 per cent—nearly 20 percentage points short.
The shortfall means millions of Nigerians, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, remain excluded from high-speed internet access required for seamless digital participation, including election result transmission.
While Nigeria boasts a teledensity of 82.87 per cent, NCC data show a heavy reliance on older technologies. Fourth-generation (4G) networks account for 52.99 per cent coverage, while 2G still serves 37.77 per cent of users. Third-generation (3G) covers just 5.91 per cent, and 5G remains marginal at 3.77 per cent.
As a result, a significant portion of the population remains trapped on low-capacity networks ill-suited for modern digital applications.
Rural Communities Left Behind
An estimated 21 million Nigerians living in 4,834 communities—mostly rural—still lack basic mobile connectivity. Communications Minister Bosun Tijani disclosed this earlier in 2025, noting that while progress has been made, digital exclusion remains widespread.
Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF) data show that the number of Nigerians in unserved or underserved areas declined from 36.8 million in 2013 to about 23 million by 2024. However, USPF Secretary Yomi Arowosafe said these populations are spread across more than 3,000 communities, largely in rural locations.
Many of the worst-affected areas are in northern states such as Zamfara, Kaduna, Sokoto and Taraba, where insecurity has triggered repeated telecom shutdowns and damaged infrastructure. In the south, underserved communities are concentrated in riverine and border areas of Bayelsa, Delta and Ondo states, where low population density discourages private investment.
Risks to INEC’s E-Transmission Plan
The uneven digital landscape poses serious challenges for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). While urban areas enjoy internet penetration of about 57 per cent, rural communities lag at just 23 per cent.
In areas dominated by 2G and 3G—or with no signal at all—real-time result uploads may prove impractical. Analysts warn that enforcing electronic transmission without addressing infrastructure gaps could lead to delays, data bottlenecks and system failures, potentially fuelling mistrust and allegations of manipulation.
Election technologies such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) require stable network connections, which many rural areas cannot reliably provide.
Structural Challenges Holding Back Broadband
Several systemic issues have hindered broadband expansion. Over 30,000 telecom base stations still rely on diesel generators due to unstable electricity supply, pushing operating costs up by as much as 40 per cent.
Infrastructure vandalism is another major concern. NCC records show over 19,000 fibre cuts, 3,241 cases of equipment theft and thousands of access denials between January and August 2025 alone. MTN reported more than 9,000 fibre cuts in 2025.
Right-of-way charges imposed by some state governments further complicate fibre deployment, with operators complaining of prohibitive fees that slow expansion into underserved areas.
NCC Executive Vice Chairman Aminu Maida warned that weak broadband does not merely slow digital systems but can cripple them entirely. He stressed that broadband must be treated as essential infrastructure, comparable to roads and electricity, for Nigeria’s digital democracy to function.
Telecom Operators Remain Optimistic
Despite the challenges, telecom operators insist electronic transmission of election results is achievable. Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecoms Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), Gbenga Adebayo, said existing infrastructure could be upgraded within 12 months to support result transmission.
According to him, the NCC requires a minimum of 3G coverage, which is sufficient for transmitting election results securely. He added that upgrading last-mile radios and increasing backbone capacity in polling areas would significantly improve readiness.
Former ATCON president and IPNX director Olusola Teniola also argued that even 2G technology could support basic electronic transmission for more than 87 per cent of polling units, provided data requirements are kept minimal.
Lessons from Other Countries
Several emerging economies with similar connectivity challenges have adopted hybrid or offline-friendly electronic voting models. Countries such as India, Brazil and the Philippines rely on systems that either avoid real-time internet dependence or allow delayed uploads via secure hubs.
Experts say Nigeria could adopt a hybrid approach by designating fibre-connected schools or government buildings as digital collation centres, using satellite services like NigComSat or Starlink, and deploying solar-powered transmission equipment.
As Nigeria pushes ahead with mandatory electronic transmission, analysts warn that without urgent broadband investment and flexible implementation models, the gap between law and infrastructure could threaten the credibility of future elections.
