NESG Outlook: What Nigeria’s Economy Means for Startups in 2026
For founders building startups in Nigeria, 2026 will not be business as usual. According to the latest macroeconomic outlook from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the country is transitioning into what it calls a consolidation phase.
In simple terms, Nigeria is attempting to stabilise the painful reforms of the past two years—fuel subsidy removal, FX unification, and tight monetary policy and convert them into a more predictable economic environment. Crisis mode is easing, even if pressures remain.
So what should startups realistically expect in 2026? Here are five key takeaways from the NESG outlook.
1. Inflation Will Ease, but Living Costs Will Stay High
One of the few bright spots in Nigeria’s macro picture is inflation moderation. According to rebased data from the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation fell from 27.61% in January 2025 to 17.33% by November 2025, a sharp 10.28 percentage-point drop and the lowest level since May 2022.
This decline was largely driven by aggressive tightening from the Central Bank of Nigeria, which kept interest rates high to curb excess spending.
What this means for startups:
Pricing volatility should reduce. Cost planning becomes easier. You are less likely to wake up to sudden price shocks every month.
However, food inflation remains stubborn due to insecurity in farming regions and supply chain disruptions. Households are still under pressure, so consumer purchasing power will recover slowly.
2. Interest Rates Will Stay High—But Pressure May Ease Gradually
Credit conditions remain harsh. In 2025, maximum lending rates hovered around 29%, while the monetary policy rate stayed above 27%. While rates softened slightly toward year-end, borrowing is still expensive.
For founders, this means:
Bank loans will remain unattractive in 2026. Bootstrapping, grants, and equity financing will continue to outperform debt.
That said, NESG projects a gradual softening of rates if inflation continues to fall. This won’t bring cheap credit overnight—but it could make financing less punitive over time.
3. The Naira Is Likely to Remain Relatively Stable
One of the most significant shifts since 2023 has been FX stability. In 2025, the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates narrowed to below 3%.
- Average official rate: ₦1,504/$
- Parallel market rate: ₦1,538/$
This followed Nigeria’s FX market unification and reduced central bank intervention. While the naira initially depreciated sharply, it has since stabilised.
Why this matters for startups:
Predictable FX reduces risk for import-dependent businesses, cross-border SaaS companies, and startups earning dollar revenue. Currency uncertainty is no longer the dominant threat it once was.
4. Economic Growth Will Continue—But Not Across All Sectors
Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, an improvement over 2024 but still below the government’s 4.6% target.
Growth was uneven:
- Services: Over 60% of GDP growth
- Industry: ~22%
- Agriculture: ~18%
- Oil production: +9.4%
- Manufacturing: Just 1.5%
Implications for startups:
If you operate in fintech, logistics, media, SaaS, e-commerce, or digital services, macro conditions are favourable. These sectors are pulling the economy forward.
Manufacturing and agritech are growing more slowly, but the NESG outlook explicitly targets:
- Manufacturing growth: up to 8% annually
- Agriculture productivity: up to 6%
This signals incoming incentives and policy support for real-sector startups willing to play the long game.
5. Investors Will Return—But With Caution
Capital inflows into Nigeria more than doubled in 2025, reaching $22 billion between January and November, compared to $10.8 billion in 2024.
However, there is a catch.
- 85% ($18.7bn) came from foreign portfolio investment (short-term capital)
- Only $0.8bn was foreign direct investment (FDI)
Nigeria also received a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, signalling improved macro credibility.
What this means for startups:
Investor confidence is improving, but long-term capital remains cautious. Expect interest in scalable, revenue-generating startups—but fewer speculative bets.
Bonus Reality Check: Government Spending Will Stay Tight
Government revenue improved in 2025, with non-oil taxes hitting 93% of the target. However, capital expenditure collapsed. Development spending fell 73% below target as debt servicing consumed a large share of the budget.
Translation:
Do not expect rapid infrastructure rollouts or massive government contracts in 2026. The state is stabilising—but still financially constrained.
What This Means for Nigerian Founders in 2026
The NESG outlook paints 2026 as a year of stability, not abundance. Inflation is cooling, FX is steadier, and investor sentiment is improving—but financing remains tight, and growth is uneven.
For startups, success in 2026 will favour:
- Strong unit economics
- Clear paths to revenue
- Capital efficiency
- Alignment with growth sectors or policy priorities
Nigeria’s economy is no longer in freefall, but it is not booming either. For disciplined founders, that may be exactly the environment where resilient companies are built.
